Evidence Of Climate Change Induced Seismicity

October 2, 2025, La Jolla.
Climate Change Induced Seismicity

Recent studies show that geosphere dynamically responds to heatwaves. This causes hydraulic pressure to be excerted by meltwater from systems such as glaciers. Such dynamics result in microseismicity. The frequency and intensity of such events have increased since 2015 in alpine regions as demonstrated by ETH Zürich researchers.

Heatwaves are periods of unusually hot weather that last for days or weeks. While high pressure systems normally cause heatwaves, climate change can make them more frequent and severe. Our researchers have examined and independently verified how seismic events follow heatwaves (usually between 90 to 120 days) resulted from climate change. The delay in response is due to various factors, among them the time it takes for soil consolidation. Given that the observed correlations are 3σ away from null hypothesis, within 95% confidence interval. Development of risk analysis models can result in urabn planning and policy development for alpine and arctic residents.

Climate Change Induced Seismicity
Illustration of climate change impacts on seismicity. Seismic Data Availability: [1] Réseau Sismologique et géodésique Français. , [2] Swiss Seismological Service (SED).
Model
In order to develop risk analyis for such events, a Bayesian model was developed. Such models examine the likelihood of seismic events following heatwaves.
Model
Meteorlogical data confirming heatwave events are retrieved from the closest weather station: [3] Previsioni Meteo vda Regione Autonoma Valle d’Aosta.

This research is presented by Scripps Institution Of Oceanography (SIO) Alumni Reza Rahemi at the 11th SIO research Symposium held on September 24, 2025.